Predictions for the Decade

[Lenny]

While it's not exactly a project, you could consider it to be one that will last for 10 years.

We should each make a prediction about this coming decade, and then look back in 10 years to see how accurate they were. It'll be fun!

Mine is that computers won't be sold with hard drives from 2020 onwards. They'll all be using Flash memory or SSD.

Have fun - and happy new decade!

Lenny

[scythe]

The life expectancy of East Asian countries will decrease thanks to the increased popularity of smoking, Putin will attempt unsuccessfully to monopolize control of Russia, Mexico will legalize cannabis, solar panels will become ubiquitous thanks to rapidly dropping prices ($0.50/watt is predicted by 2012, cheaper even than coal), cap-and-trade will probably fail on account of being boneheaded, computers will ship with nonvolatile RAM and all the blah about boot times and battery life will immediately become irrelevant (Sorry, Chrome OS), and China will no longer exchange currency on a fixed rate with USD. Tesla Motors et al will see modest success. Dubai will lose some of its opulence but won't fall into ruin. Rush Limbaugh will die by 2013 of heart failure (only relevant because of current events).

What won't happen: increased popularity of hybrid cars, human beings on Mars, Chinese becoming the international language of commerce, "peak lithium", a successful revolt in a first world country, a solution to the conflicts in the Middle East, a reversal of the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, the rise of a third party in American politics, strong AI, the technological singularity, the Year of Linux on the Desktop, the replacement of x86, the rise of biofuels, the rise of hydrogen, universal healthcare in the United States (state-by-state is more likely), or a reversal of Britain and Australia's new experiments in Orwellianism.

No comment on net neutrality.

[T3chno]

What won't happen: ... human beings on Mars,

This. I can't believe how many people I've met stating that we're gonna be in Mars this coming decade. I mean, hell, NASA is still planning a venture to the moon in 2014. They claim it's going to be a stepping stone from there to get to Mars, and that's highly unlikely to accomplish within those 6 years.

Oh, and some people honestly believe there's going to be a hotel in space in 2 years. .___.;;


Oh, and Glenn Beck + Palin 2012.

[Pheidippides]

Holy crap. Not so much global predictions, but this made me think. By the end of the next decade, I will have graduated college, possibly grad school, gotten a job, potentially (hopefully) gotten married, and if that's true, then I could have a Pheidi Jr. on my hands by 2020 or soon after. I'd turn /thirty/ shortly into the following decade. Oh God. Gotta get out. The window. *crash*

[Chase]

What won't happen: The world ending in 2012.

[MattKestrel]

In order of how likely...

> Climate change will have been universally acknowledged as a threat, but international collaboration will still fail to happen.
> I will be more pissed than I am now.
> I will have a girlfriend :(

[Scrivener]

guys, it's not so big a deal as you make it out to be. we only have to predict the next 2 years, cause that's all we got left.

JKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJKJK

jk

Hmm... I will graduate high school and go to college if I feel like it. Rice? I dunno...
Who knows? maybe someone will try to impeach Obama, but I don't think it will succeed.
I WILL BE 25.... Jezuz Chrizt
I will try to get a perfect score on the SAT (heh... unlikely, but what the hell)
Many conspiracy theories will be invented throughout the decade, duh
ATOB will get approximately 12,763,348 features
Bring back bitesizing? (hey i can dream can't i)
Hopefully by the end of the next 10 years I will have finished Atlas Shrugged (jeez.... so long.......)
...................................................................nope still reading
The Boy Scout Pine Wood Derby will become the Boy Scout Titanium Race to Mars (just to annoy techno)
My little sister will become a teenager and her attitude will.... probably just stay the same :p
I will eventually get my Driver's Permit... which I should have done several months ago.... and which I should be studying for right now
whatever, off to Mexico

[T3chno]

The Boy Scout Pine Wood Derby will become the Boy Scout Titanium Race to Mars

/me facepalm

[Amadeus]

Oh boy. I'll be 24, out of college, considering marrying <3 and probably with a house of my own. Crazy to think about.

[Lenny]

Holy crap. Not so much global predictions, but this made me think.

I know, right? Right when we're coming up to the end of school... there are so many big questions for me. It's just too overwhelming.

What won't happen: The world ending in 2012.

Also, win for Chase.

[Chase]

Another note, I'll be 28. Nigh on 30. D:

Still, hopefully by then I'll have a good job, and a family and my own house. Here's hoping.

[SlappyMcGee]

I'll probably be dead or in charge of sales at a small web-based corporation.

[EdoI]

Actually, the decade starts in 2011.

[Pheidippides]

Actually, the decade starts in 2011.

You're wrong. Did the 90's start in 1991? If so, that would make 1990 part of the 80's. Does that make any sense? Nope. The new millennium started in 2001, but that's because counting begins with 1, not zero. When we're grouping years into decades, it doesn't make sense to follow counting rules, because then you end up with stuff like 1990 as the last year of the 80's, which is absurd. So yeah, we actually are in a new decade now, unless you happen to think that 2000 was a part of the 90's as well.

[Chase]

Actually, the decade starts in 2011.

You're wrong. Did the 90's start in 1991? If so, that would make 1990 part of the 80's. Does that make any sense? Nope. The new millennium started in 2001, but that's because counting begins with 1, not zero. When we're grouping years into decades, it doesn't make sense to follow counting rules, because then you end up with stuff like 1990 as the last year of the 80's, which is absurd. So yeah, we actually are in a new decade now, unless you happen to think that 2000 was a part of the 90's as well.

So yeah, Pheidi is right.

[EdoI]

Actually, the decade starts in 2011.

You're wrong. Did the 90's start in 1991? If so, that would make 1990 part of the 80's. Does that make any sense? Nope. The new millennium started in 2001, but that's because counting begins with 1, not zero. When we're grouping years into decades, it doesn't make sense to follow counting rules, because then you end up with stuff like 1990 as the last year of the 80's, which is absurd. So yeah, we actually are in a new decade now, unless you happen to think that 2000 was a part of the 90's as well.

Millenium is a period of 1,000 years. A decade is the same thing, only smaller - a period of 10 years.
From the above written, we conclude that a decade ends when 10 years passes, right?

Code: Select all

YEAR........YEARS PASSED FROM CHRIST
1...........0
2...........1
3...........2
4...........3
5...........4
6...........5
7...........6
8...........7
9...........8
10..........9
11..........10 - a decade ends here
...
100........99
101........100 - a century ends here
...
1000......999
1001......1000 - a millenium ends here

[SlappyMcGee]

Are you actually arguing that the year 1990 was part of the eighties? Your logic is impenetrably stupid. Whether cultural decades and when you decided that the decade start are different, that's hardly the point. This is a new decade.

[EdoI]

Are you actually arguing that the year 1990 was part of the eighties? Your logic is impenetrably stupid. Whether cultural decades and when you decided that the decade start are different, that's hardly the point. This is a new decade.

Why is stating that 1990 was in eighties any more logical than saying that the first decade had nine instead of ten years?

Though, I wasn't even saying that '90 was in the eighties. If we go by ordinal numbers, which is how we name years, of course '90 was start of the nineties. However, if we follow cardinal numbers, we'll see that we have one more year to go.

[Spawn of Yanni]

1990 was clearly part of the 90s, and '80 part of the 80s, and so on. That's how we define our decades, and by that definition, the year 1 BC was in the same "decade" as the year 1 AD. Which is not that big of a deal considering it's an awkward changeover anyway and entirely irrelevant to the current times.

[EdoI]

1990 was clearly part of the 90s, and '80 part of the 80s, and so on. That's how we define our decades, and by that definition, the year 1 BC was in the same "decade" as the year 1 AD. Which is not that big of a deal considering it's an awkward changeover anyway and entirely irrelevant to the current times.

Well, 90s is how we call the period starting with 1990 and ending with 1999, but if we went by cardinal numbers, we'd get into the 1990 one year later.
It would all be simpler if we had a year 0.

[SlappyMcGee]

So, then, you agree that this is the beginning of the normal decade? Because that's the point of this thread. I'm not sure it matters much that the date system has a flaw. We, as a culture, have determined the next ten years from two days ago to be the next decade, and the thread is about making predictions over those ten years. Debate over whether or not this period of ten years is actually a decade (and why wouldn't it be? It just doesn't stack with the first few years.) isn't a logical conclusion of this thread.

My prediction for the decade is that ten years from now, people will still be having this debate.

[T3chno]

Because things that happened in 1990 are part of the 90s. For example, the grunge movement.

EDIT: Didn't read the two posts above me. :3 Basically said the same thing.

[EdoI]

Because things that happened in 1990 are part of the 90s. For example, the grunge movement.

We went over that topic, 1990 is part of the 90s because it's 1990. If we take year 1 to be year 0, every year will be less than now for 1, 1990 will become 1989, and it'll actually be started in the 80s.

Okay, back to the real topic. : )
I'm predicting there's going to be a massive panic in 2012 that will cause crisis.
Google is going to start making OS that will be more popular than Windows. Okay, maybe not more popular, but it's going to be somewhere close.
Wii-like gaming will become more and more used.
I'm afraid music will decline, as the best bands today were made in eighties. Sure, there's going to be good stuff, but I don't think we'll get as big and good replacement for Metallica or Red Hot Chili Peppers in the near future.
Movies technology will get better, we'll see more and more Avatar-like stuff.

I'll try some more predicting later.

[T3chno]

Wii-like gaming will become more and more involved.

Project Natal is something to look forward to.

[SlappyMcGee]

On the aside of music dying, I think this decade was the best decade for music ever. There are more bands I love who made their debut these last ten years than bands I love who made their debut any other decade combined. I see music only going uphill as it becomes easier to record and our cultural consciousness starts to embrace more offbeat ideas.